Christian Bueger


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Facing new maritime uncertainties: Takeaways from Atalanta’s Industry Strategy Meeting

How are navies and the transport industry coping with ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and wider Western Indian Ocean?

Attacks on shipping, the US naval blockade, mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but also the ongoing threat from Houthi forces and the resurgence of piracy combine to create a volatile environment. The negotiations between Iran and the US are ongoing with an uncertain timeline and little prospect for immediate resolution.

Over the last few days, I had the pleasure of participating in the 17th Industry Strategy Meeting (ISM) organized by EU Naval Operation Atalanta in cooperation with Aspides and the Combined Maritime Forces.

The ISM is an established fixture in the annual maritime security calendar, bringing together naval missions operating in the region and representatives of the shipping industry to review threats, risks, and operational effectiveness. Held each spring in Madrid, it forms a pair with the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction Meeting (SHADE), which convenes each autumn in the region itself — together providing a rhythm of strategic reflection and operational coordination across the year.

Challenges and Gaps in the current response

Five key insights from the meeting:

(1) The multinational military mission led by France and the UK (which now has the acronym M3 SoH) is being prepared with several naval assets deployed to the region. Planning is now on two levels: a political contact group and military coordination. The current time horizon is 12 months. There is little sign that the shipping industry has been meaningfully consulted, or that questions such as environmental consequences or the long-term legal status and transit regime have been properly addressed.

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The new situation in the Western Indian Ocean – event in Mauritius

What are the strategic implications of the Strait of Hormuz crisis for small island states?

This week I had the pleasure to discuss this important question at a roundtable in the frame of the WIO Futures conference organized by the Charles Telfair Center.

Small island states have been heavily affected by the shut down of the Strait. Rising energy prices in economies often fully dependent on oil, food prices, gaps in supplies and a drop in tourism are some of the fall outs.

For Islands this means not only to diversify their supply chains, but invest more in local green energy. Delighted to learn that for instance Mauritius has stepped up its programmes.

It also implies that islands need deeper regional integration. Frameworks like the Indian Ocean Commission and the Indian Ocean Rim Association are more valuable today than they have ever been. They offer exactly what isolated small states cannot achieve alone: risk-sharing, collective bargaining, and protection against external shocks.

For maritime security deeper regional integration and more efforts in capacity sharing are likewise needed. This means pooling resources in maritime law enforcement, getting towards working regional information sharing system, and thinking more strategically when and how to rely on the support of maritime powers.


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The Price of Inattention: Somali Piracy Returns – new commentary

Somali piracy is back. In the space of just a few weeks in April and May 2026, at least five vessels have been seized off the Somali coast and nearby waters. The oil tanker Honour 25, loaded with 18,000 barrels of crude and crewed by 17 seafarers from across Asia, was hijacked off Puntland on April 21. The cargo ship Sward was taken days later near Garacad, its fifteen-person crew locked up while nine armed pirates took control. The UAE-flagged dhow Fahad-4 was seized and repurposed as a mother ship — a floating base from which pirates could range across hundreds of miles of open ocean — before being abandoned when supplies ran out. The Togo-flagged tanker Eureka was captured off Yemen and steered toward Somali shores.

The Joint Maritime Information Centre has raised its threat level to “severe.” The conditions for a prolonged crisis are in place.

None of this should surprise us. In a 2024 commentary, I warned that piracy was returning and that the governance structures built to contain it had quietly eroded. The warning signs were already clear in late 2023.

In November, pirates hijacked the Liberian-flagged Central Park off the Yemeni coast, later recaptured by the US Navy. On December 14, the Maltese-flagged MV Ruen was seized and repurposed — exactly as today’s pirates are doing — as a mother ship. In early January 2024, the MV Lila Norfolk was captured before the Indian Navy moved swiftly to retake it. The decisive response came in March 2024, when Indian special forces intercepted the Ruen, arrested 35 pirates, and freed the crew.

The threat appeared to recede. But the underlying conditions were never addressed. Pirates watched, waited, and reorganised.

Five factors explaining the return

What has changed between then and now? Five factors, layered on top of each other, have created the opening that pirate networks in Puntland are exploiting.

The first factor is the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Somali piracy networks are not single-purpose criminal enterprises; they operate across multiple illicit economies, including smuggling through the strait. Denied that revenue stream, criminal financiers are redirecting toward hijacking and ransom.

Second, the broader economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has simultaneously pushed up fuel and food prices across the Horn of Africa, straining coastal communities in Puntland that have historically supplied both recruits and logistical support. When people have no income and no prospects, maritime crime becomes an employer of last resort.

Third, US cuts to development assistance and reductions in UN programme funding have eliminated what limited economic alternatives existed. Counter-piracy experts have long argued that sustainable suppression requires onshore investment — in livelihoods, governance, local institutions. Strip that away, and deterrents at sea become harder to sustain.

The fourth is US disengagement. Washington has reduced its naval contribution to counter-piracy and, more damagingly, has likely scaled back the support that gave the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) and its counter-piracy task force its genuine operational bite. On paper, CMF remains a 47-nation partnership. In practice, its effectiveness has always depended on American backbone — and that backbone is being quietly pulled.

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Contested Waters: Maritime Order Under Pressure – Event in Bonn

The maritime domain is facing increasing uncertainty. There is a need to look at the larger strategic picture of how maritime order is changing.

Yesterday, we discussed the Arctic and the Strait of Hormuz as two vital and strategic maritime regions at a public event organized by the Academy of International Affairs NRW in Bonn.

Key takeaways:

The maritime domain is increasingly becoming a contested and ever more politicized space. Contestation over Greenland, the Panama Canal, but also the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are indicators.

Grey-zone and hybrid threats are prevailing and challenge interpretations of the rules and laws of the sea.

Geopolitical fragmentation and new uncertainty provides opportunities for maritime crime syndicates, as seen in the recent resurgence of Somali piracy.

The Strait of Hormuz exemplifies how the proliferation of low-cost weapon systems challenges conventional understandings of naval dominance and control of waterways.

It is vital to look beyond the immediate and maintain a strategic outlook on how multilateral mechanisms can strengthen maritime order in the light of these challenges.

Given the gridlock at the global level, regional and minilateral initiatives will be key to ensuring maritime security.


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Europe-led Strait of Hormuz mission: Why we need more than military planning

Few waterways matter more to the global economy than the Strait of Hormuz—and few are as vulnerable to disruption. Getting shipping flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz is a top priority.

On Friday, the 17th of April, the UK and France convened a head-of-state meeting to discuss a multinational coalition aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait. The level of representation alone signals how seriously the situation is being taken.

Planning is underway, and the coalition is taking shape. Intense discussions over the past week have taken place in four working groups focusing on military coordination, sanctions, humanitarian efforts, and cooperation with the shipping industry. Yet planners should adopt a more comprehensive, long-term outlook.

Why is military protection needed once hostilities end?

Political leaders have stressed that the coalition will only act once a more stable agreement between Iran and the United States is in place and hostilities have ended. Yet even in such a scenario, the shipping industry will still require reassurance from a sustained naval presence.

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Mines & Strait of Hormuz: Meetings in Geneva

What are the larger strategic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz crisis? During my visit to Geneva last Friday, I had the opportunity to discuss this question at two events.

I gave a presentation on the Strait at a maritime roundtable organized by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. I highlighted that we are facing long-term instability, not only in the Gulf region but also across the maritime domain more broadly. Grey-zone warfare, lawfare, and attempts to exert political control over key waterways are becoming increasingly common patterns.

It is important to start thinking about long-term political solutions for the Strait of Hormuz, including a formal, legally binding transit regime. The discussion also underscored that international law relevant to this situation remains underdeveloped, particularly with regard to straits and naval warfare. Also, questions of environmental security and the situation of seafarers currently do not receive sufficient attention.

I also presented new research on naval mines at a side event on underwater explosives at the 29th International Meeting of Mine Action National Directors and United Nations Advisers (NDM-UN29), organized by JPI Oceans. Key points:

  • Naval mines are increasingly used in armed conflicts that includes the Red Sea, the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz;
  • More and more states are reinvesting in sea mines;
  • There is a significant normative deficit regarding the use and clearance of modern naval mines—the law is outdated.


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New Commentary: Strengthening the UN’s role in maritime security

The UN Security Council will continue its strategic debate on maritime security next week. Bahrain is chairing an open debate on the topic. Much of the discussion is likely to be overshadowed by the tricky situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, there are broader issues at stake: How can the UN engage with maritime security and peace in a more sustained and strategic manner? In a new contribution for UNIDIR’s maritime security workstream I show that the UN faces gaps in coordination and analysis.

I propose reform steps, which are modest in ambition, but significant in impact. The UN’s approach would be stronger through:

  • a thematic Security Council resolution,
  • a Secretary General report,
  • deeper in-house expertise,
  • and mainstreaming the maritime security agenda.

Read the full text here.


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Keynote at One Ocean Summit in Bergen

One Ocean Week in Bergen, Norway, was a great gathering of ocean entrepreneurs, industry leaders, and policymakers. I had the pleasure of presenting the opening keynote at the One Ocean Summit and participating in two panels. Here are my key takeaways:

  • While the oceans have received unprecedented political attention, discussions on peace and security, ocean health, and the blue economy remain disconnected.
  • We should move beyond current discussions of dual use and instead develop multi-use systems—ones that support security while also benefiting the economy, conservation, science, and people.
  • To improve maritime security governance, global (UN), regional seas, and national responses need to be better coordinated.
  • The everyday, often quiet work of coastguards is essential to strengthening ocean governance. More efforts are needed to build coastguard capacity and enhance cooperation in Europe and beyond.

The recording of the opening session is available here.


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The promise and perils of regional maritime security governance in the Western Indian Ocean

Global maritime security depends on effective regional institutions. In the Western Indian Ocean, a major building block is the Djibouti Code of Conduct (DCoC) — a platform connecting 21 countries from the Eastern African shore, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf.

What’s the state of play of this grouping of states? Over the last few days, I participated in a seminar in Mombasa, Kenya, organized by the U.S. Africa Center for Strategic Studies to find out.

How does DCoC operate?

The DCoC continues to serve as a platform for maritime law enforcement professionals and maritime authorities, facilitated by the International Maritime Organization — the United Nations’ shipping regulator. Created in 2009 to contribute to the fight against piracy, its mandate was later expanded to cover maritime crime more broadly. Over the years, the platform has matured institutionally, developing a steering committee and three working groups.

In essence, the DCoC has two main purposes:

  • To set standards for how member states organize their maritime security governance and to enable coordination among them,
  • To coordinate the delivery of capacity building.

The organization has clearly progressed in developing standards, yet national implementation remains limited. Capacity-building coordination is important but highly intricate, given divergent donor interests and political considerations.

What are the challenges?

The DCoC continues to pursue ambitious plans, yet regional meetings alone will not be enough to realize them. National politics, resource constraints, funding limitations, and diverging priorities remain difficult hurdles to overcome.

Another persistent challenge is how the DCoC interacts with other regional platforms. The interfaces between the DCoC and the Regional Maritime Security Architecture — a well-functioning, smaller cooperation framework between seven Eastern African states led by the Indian Ocean Commission and funded by the European Union — are becoming increasingly well organized.

However, linkages to other regional maritime security entities, ranging from the Gulf Cooperation Council and India’s regional information-sharing center to the Nairobi Convention, the Combined Maritime Forces or the Indian Ocean Rim Association remain ambiguous and underdeveloped.

Will geopolitical fragmentation impact the partnership?

While not yet immediately visible at the meeting I attended, the DCoC will not escape broader geopolitical fragmentation. This includes relations among member states and their neighbors, dynamics involving India and Pakistan, South Africa’s geopolitical positioning, and the evolving role of the United States in the region — not least in light of the recent Gulf War.

Stewardship by a United Nations agency will remain important to move this platform forward. At the same time, it raises the question of whether the region might benefit from smaller, more functional cooperation frameworks — potentially decoupling Red Sea and Gulf security from the distinct challenges and needs of African coastal states.

Another pathway would be to continue the process of institutional maturation and begin treating DCoC agreements as a form of regional customary law. Whether national legislatures are ready to move in that direction remains uncertain.

What’s the future of the maritime security architecture in WIO? Let’s discuss on LinkedIn